Can you absorb a 60% drawdown in BOTH positions simultaneously AND a personal liquidity event (medical, job loss, real estate)? If no — size down to 1.5%.
Deployment Schedule
Tranche
SpaceX (80%)
Anthropic (20%)
Total Deployed
Notes
Day 1 (40%)
$32,000
$8,000
$40,000
Market/post-auction order. Reduce by 50% if IPO prices >15% above secondary.
-10% Trigger (SpaceX 30% / Anthropic 60%)
$24,000
$12,000
$36,000
GTC limit order. Wait 3 days before deploying (5 days if ambiguous). Do NOT deploy if thesis-break news.
-20% Trigger (SpaceX only)
$24,000
— no trigger —
$24,000
Anthropic has no -20% tranche. SpaceX only. Same wait rules apply.
Total Deployment
$80,000
$20,000
$100,000
Remaining cash earns MM yield; time decay at Month 18 if triggers never fire.
Governance Calendar & Trim Thresholds
Milestone
Threshold / Date
Action Required
Time Decay Activates
Month 18 post-SpaceX IPO
If drawdown triggers never fired, begin deploying remaining cash. Monthly amount: $5,000/month over 12 months (pauses if stock >+40% from offering price)
First Trim
$250,000 (5% NW)
Sell 25% of position → cash reserve
Second Trim
$375,000 (7.5% NW)
Sell another 25% of position → cash reserve
Hard Cap
$500,000 (10% NW)
Trim back to 5% of NW — active reduction required
Anthropic Rollover Deadline
December 2027
If no Anthropic IPO by this date, roll allocation into SpaceX (4th tranche) or general portfolio
Day 181 Lock-Up Watch
Day 181 post-IPO
If price trigger fires within 5 days of Day 181, pause and observe — insider selling pressure is mechanical, not thesis-driven
Anthropic 5-Year Review
Year 5 post-Anthropic IPO
Formal re-underwrite from scratch. Review ≠ exit. Default: hold if thesis intact.
⚠️ Missed Day 1 Protocol Active
Because you are entering post-IPO, the standard Day 1 tranche is unavailable. Per Framework v3.7: deploy 30% at the -10% trigger (absorbs the missed Day 1 position), 30% at -20%, and let the remaining 40% follow the standard 18-month time decay schedule from the original IPO date — not from today. Do not compress the time decay clock. The 18-month window is measured from IPO date.
Correlation Adjustment:No adjustment needed.
3. Scenario Parametrizer
See how the Best/Worst case scenarios scale to your specific net worth.
Best Case (5yr) NW Gain
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+185.2% return on allocated capital (bull run)
Worst Case (5yr) NW Drag
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-16.9% return on allocated capital (secular stagnation)